Why “Do the ends justify the means?” is the wrong question d

Outcome bias versus moral philosophy

In a recent article, I wrote about outcome bias and the core principle of decision analysis:

The quality of a decision should be evaluated using only the information available to the decision-maker at the time the decision was made.

If you’re new to the topic, I recommend checking out my gentle intro. This article is a footnote for my fellow nerds.

The 3 main perspectives on moral philosophy

• Consequentialism: consider the consequences!
• Deontology: do your duty!
• Virtue ethics: be virtuous!

Moral propaganda or decision intelligence?

Don’t misunderstand outcome bias as propaganda against consequentialist morality.

https://gitlab.com/gitlab-org/gitlab/-/issues/293100

https://gitlab.com/gitlab-org/gitlab/-/issues/293101

https://gitlab.com/gitlab-org/gitlab/-/issues/293102

https://gitlab.com/gitlab-org/gitlab/-/issues/293103

https://gitlab.com/gitlab-org/gitlab/-/issues/293104

https://gitlab.com/gitlab-org/gitlab/-/issues/293105

https://gitlab.com/gitlab-org/gitlab/-/issues/293106

https://gitlab.com/gitlab-org/gitlab/-/issues/293107

https://gitlab.com/gitlab-org/gitlab/-/issues/293108

https://fightsports20.medium.com/us-im-being-honest-i-was-the-one-who-wasn-t-ready-a920d1591450

https://www.reddit.com/r/joshuavspulevlivesst/comments/kbpcix/joshua_vs_pulev_live_stream_reddit/

https://www.reddit.com/r/joshuavspulevlivesst/comments/kbpcnt/joshua_vs_pulev_live_streamreddituk/

https://www.reddit.com/r/joshuavspulevlivesst/comments/kbpcs8/boxingliveofficial_joshua_vs_pulev_live_stream/

https://www.reddit.com/r/joshuavspulevlivesst/comments/kbpd1w/boxingtreamsofficial_pulev_vs_joshua_live/

https://www.reddit.com/r/joshuavspulevlivesst/comments/kbpdg0/redditofficialjoshua_vs_pulev_live_streamreddit/

https://www.reddit.com/r/joshuavspulevlivesst/comments/kbpdjz/livestream_official_pulev_vs_joshua_live/

https://www.reddit.com/r/joshuavspulevlivesst/comments/kbpdm9/live_stream_joshua_vs_pulev_live_streamsreddit/

https://www.reddit.com/r/mancityvsmanutdlivest/comments/kbpkeq/streamofficial_2020man_united_vs_man_city_live/

https://www.reddit.com/r/mancityvsmanutdlivest/comments/kbpkis/manchester_united_vs_manchester_city_live/

https://www.reddit.com/r/mancityvsmanutdlivest/comments/kbpknb/redditofficial_2020man_united_vs_man_city_live/

https://www.reddit.com/r/mancityvsmanutdlivest/comments/kbpkpo/streamofficial_2020man_utd_vs_man_city_live/

https://www.reddit.com/r/mancityvsmanutdlivest/comments/kbpksb/streamofficial_eplman_city_vs_man_united_live/

https://www.reddit.com/r/mancityvsmanutdlivest/comments/kbpkwf/officialderby_2020man_city_vs_man_united_live/

https://www.reddit.com/r/mancityvsmanutdlivest/comments/kbpl02/manchester_city_vs_manchester_united_live/

You’d be forgiven for thinking it’s about that if you’ve been subjected to flatfooted explanations of outcome bias that play fast and loose with the words “intentions” and “consequences.” …

Experts in decision analysis have a nifty trick for sniffing out unskilled decision-makers. Curious to know what they’d say about you? Find out by revisiting our quiz from last week with a follow-up question.

Quiz time!

Heather is Canadian, kind, friendly, smart, and loves animals. She is a sustainability consultant. In college, she studied math and psychology. She likes going for long walks and lives near several hiking trails.

Which is more probable about Heather?

1. Heather has a PhD.
2. Heather has a PhD and owns a dog.

Make sure you’ve prepared your answer before you scroll down!

For added flavor, take my quick quiz before you read on.)

Learning is a good thing, but don’t learn the wrong lessons by misdiagnosing your mistakes. Sometimes, life throws you a random curveball you couldn’t have anticipated no matter your level of decision genius. When that happens, adjusting your decision process is bad thinking.

Let me explain with an example.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ufc256livestreamst/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ufc256livefights/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ufc256livestreamst/hot/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ufc256livestreamst/new/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ufc256livestreamst/top/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ufc256livestreamst/rising/

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2877669.msg55813604#msg55813604

Imagine that you’re about to observe the simultaneous flip of a fair coin and roll of a fair six-sided die. Before it happens, you are offered the choice between two gambles:

1. Gamble on the coin, ignore the die: get $100 if it’s heads, nothing otherwise. …